June 1st – November 30th marks hurricane season in Florida. The peak of storm activity is August, September and October, but the expected conclusion is the weekend of Labour Day (September 3). The chances of a hurricane touching down in the US are rare and we usually have plenty of notice, but their path can be unpredictable. How powerful will it be? Will it become a Hurricane? If so, when and when will it make landfall? These are the questions we ask when there is mention of a storm or threatening hurricane.
We received some great news yesterday when the lead weather forecasting agency in the country lowered its predictions for the storm season.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) there is a 60 percent chance that the rest of the storm season will be below normal and the NOAA now predicts between zero and two major storms this year. It should be noted that an average season, the actual chance of a hurricane are relatively low anyway. NOAA expects between 9 and 13 named storms with 4 to 7 of them reaching hurricane level. This number includes the four named storms that have already formed this year leaving 0-2 possibly becoming major hurricanes. A storm that reaches hurricane status is one where winds are at least 74mph. A major hurricane is one that reaches category three which comes with winds of at least 111mph.
There are several reasons for these lower predictions. One of the big reasons is the anticipated El Nino which is the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino Also creates high pressure aloft and lower surface pressure in the Pacific.
Conditions where hurricanes typically develop off the African coast have also not been as conducive for the development of storms.
Another reason for a less likely chance of major storms is that hurricanes need warm water (27 C/80 F or more) to grow and with cooler than average water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, non-conducive wind patterns and warmer Pacific Ocean waters are creating a hostile environment for hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean basins. NOAA’s lead seasonal forecaster, Gerry Bell, said surface water temperatures in the Atlantic haven’t been this chilly since the early 1990s.
As we know, storms are unpredictable so when weather forecasters predict the possibility of a storm turning into a hurricane hitting the western Gulf of Mexico in a week or two, don’t immediately panic and cancel your trip. Tropical storms are notorious for changing their travel routes. If you immediately cancel, and the storm diminishes or changes direction and leaves our area unscathed, you will not only be disappointed that your dream vacation was cancelled and assuming you have insurance you might not receive reimbursement from your insurer. When planning your family vacation with Anna Maria Island Condo Rentals – 601 Gulf Dr. N. Anna Maria Island, Florida 34217 we highly recommend cancellation/interruption insurance in case our area is directly threatened.
Please ask us about cancellation insurance, we are happy to help.
This recent seasonal forecast provided us good information and is useful as a general guide. Anna Maria Island Condo Rentals will remain on hurricane alert and keep you updated as the season progresses. If you don’t see an update, remember, no news is good news!
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